A Longitudinal Multilevel Model of Tourist Outbound Travel Behavior and the Dual-Cycle Model

Ip Kin Anthony Wong, Lawrence Hoc Nang Fong, Chun Hung Roberts Law

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

34 Citations (Scopus)


The objective of this longitudinal study is to explore whether changes in tourists’ outbound travel behavior can be explained by their demographic characteristics and by economic fluctuations over time. A multilevel model of outbound travel behavior that incorporates both individual characteristics and changes in the economy is proposed. Based on a large sample from a 10-year longitudinal study, our findings show that both individual- and macro-level factors directly influence tourist behavior. The multilevel model suggests that tourist travel behavior and the effects of tourist demographics are time-variant, and can be best explained by economic fluctuations. In addition, the findings suggest that the tourist life cycle and the economic cycle, and the cross-level interaction of both, jointly influence tourist travel behavior, thus suggesting a new cross-level, dual-cycle model of travel behavior.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)957-970
Number of pages14
JournalJournal of Travel Research
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - 1 Sept 2016


  • demographic variables
  • economic performance
  • multilevel analysis
  • outbound travel
  • tourist behavior

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Geography, Planning and Development
  • Transportation
  • Tourism, Leisure and Hospitality Management


Dive into the research topics of 'A Longitudinal Multilevel Model of Tourist Outbound Travel Behavior and the Dual-Cycle Model'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this