A critical review of forecasting models to predict manpower demand

J. Wong, Ping Chuen Chan, Yat Hung Chiang

Research output: Journal article publicationJournal articleAcademic researchpeer-review

50 Citations (Scopus)


Forecasting manpower requirements has been useful for economic planners, policy makers and training providers in order to avoid the imbalance of skills in the labour market. Although reviews of the manpower planning models have been conducted previously, with the accumulated experience and the booming of advanced statistical techniques and computer programs, the study of forecasting practices has undrgone considerable changes and achieved maturity during the past decade. This paper assesses the latest employment and manpower dmand estimating methods by examining their rationale, strength and constraints. It aims to identify enhancements for further development of manpower forecasting model for the construction industry and compare the reliability and capacity of different forecasting metodologies. It is concluded that the top-down forecasting approach is the dominant methodology to forecast occupational manpower demand. It precedes other methodologies by its dynamic nature and sensitivity to aa variety of factors affecting the level and structure of employment. Given the improvement of the data available, advanced modelling techniques and computer programs, manpower planning is likely to be more accessible with improved accuracy at every level of the society.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)43-56
Number of pages14
JournalAustralasian Journal of Construction Economics and Building
Issue number2
Publication statusPublished - 2012


  • Employment forecasting
  • Forecasting models
  • Manpower planning
  • Manpower demand
  • Construction industry

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Business, Management and Accounting(all)


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