TY - JOUR
T1 - A conceptual model for the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak in Wuhan, China with individual reaction and governmental action
AU - Lin, Qianying
AU - Zhao, Shi
AU - Gao, Daozhou
AU - Lou, Yijun
AU - Yang, Shu
AU - Musa, Salihu S.
AU - Wang, Maggie H.
AU - Cai, Yongli
AU - Wang, Weiming
AU - Yang, Lin
AU - He, Daihai
PY - 2020/4
Y1 - 2020/4
N2 - The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.
AB - The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, emerged in Wuhan, China in the end of 2019, has claimed more than 2600 lives as of 24 February 2020 and posed a huge threat to global public health. The Chinese government has implemented control measures including setting up special hospitals and travel restriction to mitigate the spread. We propose conceptual models for the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan with the consideration of individual behavioural reaction and governmental actions, e.g., holiday extension, travel restriction, hospitalisation and quarantine. We employe the estimates of these two key components from the 1918 influenza pandemic in London, United Kingdom, incorporated zoonotic introductions and the emigration, and then compute future trends and the reporting ratio. The model is concise in structure, and it successfully captures the course of the COVID-19 outbreak, and thus sheds light on understanding the trends of the outbreak.
KW - City lockdown
KW - COVID-19
KW - Epidemic
KW - Governmental action
KW - Individual reaction
KW - Mathematical modelling
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85081029824&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058
DO - 10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.058
M3 - Journal article
C2 - 32145465
AN - SCOPUS:85081029824
SN - 1201-9712
VL - 93
SP - 211
EP - 216
JO - International Journal of Infectious Diseases
JF - International Journal of Infectious Diseases
ER -
