基于显示性偏好数据的航运承运人应对全球限硫令的选择偏好研究

A decision-making modeling framework for the shipowners' emissions reduction plan based on the revealed preference (RP) data was established, and the selection mechanism for the shipowners' practically feasible plan for reducing the sulfur emissions was empirically investigated. Based on the AIS data and the data from other related databases, 11 factors from ship particulars, shipowner characteristics, and external market conditions were comprehensively considered. The limitations of existing literatures focusing on economic factors and ignoring non-economic factors were overcome, and the shipowners' selection of countermeasures under sulfur restrictions was systematically analyzed. Analysis results show that the 11 factors considered in this study, which exhibit varying degrees of effects, contribute to the interpretation of the shipowners' energy selection. In terms of the modified effect sizes, the factors are sequentially presented: the time period away from the implementation of the global sulfur restrictions (3.957), the deadweight tonnage (2.270), the ship age (1.711), the company size (1.579), the price difference per ton of the fuel (1.456), the freight rate index (1.442), the environmental awareness index (1.353), the speed of the ship (1.243), the voyage length (1.172), the proportion of sailing distance in the emission control area (1.127), and the trading route diversity (1.108). With regards to the shipowners' selection of an energy plan, the time period away from the implementation of the global sulfur restrictions and the deadweight tonnage significantly affect their decisions, and the modified effect sizes are more than 2.0. The five factors (i.e., the ship age, the company size, the price difference per ton of the fuel, the freight rate index, and the environmental awareness index) moderately affect their decisions, and the modified effect sizes are within 1.3-1.8. The other four factors related to the shipowners' operation patterns marginally affect their decisions, and the modified effect sizes are less than 1.3.