公铁联运超网络致脆因子耦合动力学建模及演化机理研究

The road-rail intermodal transport System is a hypernetwork coupling System composed of multiple elements with major vulnerability characteristics. Constructing a coupling model of embrittlement factors in road-rail intermodal transport for general cargo Containers and analyzing the evolution process of the coupling effect of embrittlement factors can help reduce the comprehensive risks associated with the road-rail intermodal transport System. Herein, the stages of the road-rail intermodal transport System subjected to embrittlement factor perturbation are classified from the perspective of the vulnerability characteristic elements. Moreover, the coupling role of the two levels of embrittlement factors in the road-rail intermodal transport System is analyzed at each stage based on the hypernetwork theory. The NK model and System dynamics were used to construct the NK-HN-SD coupling evolution model, human, machine, environment, and management coupling levels of the primary embrittlement factors were quantified, and the coupling process of the secondary embrittlement factors was described. To achieve these aims, 2 185 road-rail intermodal transport accidents from 2013 to 2023 were used examples, and the coupling evolution model was applied to analyze the single-, two-, and multifactorial coupling of the two levels of embrittlement factors. Scenario simulations were performed in terms of factorial weights and coupling coefficients to explore the coupling evolution mechanism of embrittlement factors of intermodal transport. The results of the study show that regarding the different vulnerability characteristics of the elements stage, the "human-machine-environment-management" coupling value (which is most important during the exposure stage) is the highest, coupling value is 0. 371 5, sensitivity stage of the three stages of the embrittlement factor coupling effect is the weakest, and the coupling is mainly triggered by the human factor. Additionally, the management factor plays a key role in the global coupling of the embrittlement factors of intermodal transport during the stages of all characteristic elements, local coupling of the management factor and other embrittlement factors has a profound impact on the global coupling evolution, and the coupling effect of embrittlement factors of intermodal transport is affected by the factor weights and coupling coefficients. The coupling effect of embrittlement factors in road-rail transport is affected by the factor weights and coupling coefficients, and the prevention and control of coupling risk should concurrently consider the characteristics of the embrittlement factors and local coupling effect.